The ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia are beginning to impact the global carpet trade, with Kashmir’s hand-knotted carpet industry among the sectors feeling immediate pressure. A series of major international carpet exhibitions in China, Denmark, and the United Arab Emirates have been either postponed or cancelled, raising concerns over export prospects for 2026.
According to the Carpet Export Promotion Council (CEPC), organisers of key global trade fairs have officially informed stakeholders about disruptions linked to the current conflict environment. The Copenhagen Lifestyle Expo in Denmark, originally scheduled for April 22–26, 2026, and the Qinghai International Carpet Exhibition in China, planned for June 10–14, 2026, have both been postponed. Meanwhile, the Sharjah carpet exhibition in the UAE, scheduled for April 12–14, has been cancelled.
Dr. Smita Nagarkoti, Executive Director of the CEPC, confirmed that revised dates for the postponed exhibitions will be announced once organisers provide further clarity. However, the uncertainty surrounding the situation is already creating ripple effects across the industry.
Export Outlook Weakens Amid Market Uncertainty
Kashmir’s carpet sector, which relies heavily on international exhibitions to connect with high-value buyers, now faces a challenging outlook. Industry stakeholders warn that the absence of these platforms could significantly reduce export opportunities in the coming months.
Read more: A Monumental Hand-Knotted Carpet from Kashmir: Art, Patience, and Human Scale
“The Kashmir carpet industry is already under pressure, and these postponements linked to the war will make recovery even more difficult,” said Manzoor Sidiq Shah of Ali Shah Crafts, one of the region’s longstanding carpet businesses. He also highlighted concerns that tourism-driven sales within Kashmir could decline as geopolitical tensions affect travel sentiment.
Exporters further emphasized that global exhibitions play a critical role in securing premium buyers and long-term contracts. Without these events, many producers may struggle to access international markets.
Disruption of Iran-Centric Trade Networks
Industry experts point to a broader structural issue: the global carpet trade is closely interconnected, with Iran playing a central role in exhibition networks and international buyer engagement. The ongoing conflict involving Iran and its regional counterparts is therefore disrupting not only direct trade routes but also the wider ecosystem of carpet promotion and distribution.
“Iran dominates the global carpet chain and often anchors participation in international exhibitions,” said exporter Sheikh Ashiq. “When that system is disrupted, it affects all producing regions, including Kashmir. Many exporters had planned to attend exhibitions like Sharjah, which are key platforms for reaching high-end buyers.”
Industry Under Pressure Despite Previous Growth
The timing of these disruptions is particularly critical. While Kashmir’s carpet exports reached approximately ₹260.70 crore in 2024–25, the sector has been experiencing a gradual decline from its recent peak of ₹357 crore in 2022–23.
Historically, the industry has demonstrated strong growth, with exports rising from ₹84.55 crore in 1990–91 to over ₹821 crore by the mid-2010s. However, recent years have seen increasing volatility due to market shifts, competition, and now geopolitical instability.
Today, around 80,000 people in Kashmir are directly or indirectly employed in carpet manufacturing, making the sector a vital component of the region’s economy.
Shift Toward Domestic Market Reliance
With international trade channels temporarily constrained, many exporters are now looking toward domestic demand and tourism-driven sales to sustain operations. However, this strategy carries its own risks, particularly if regional tensions begin to influence travel patterns and consumer confidence.
As global uncertainties persist, the situation underscores the vulnerability of traditional, export-oriented industries to geopolitical disruptions. For Kashmir’s carpet sector, the coming months will be critical in determining whether alternative markets and strategies can offset the loss of international exhibition platforms.
